Mexico Seen Falling Into Recession Alongside US in 2023

  • US recession would drag down Mexico, Bloomberg Economics says
  • BE models show US faces 100% chance of recession next year

Shoppers near a market in Toluca, Mexico state, Mexico, on Aug. 9. 

Photographer: Luis Antonio Rojas/Bloomberg
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A near-certain US recession next year will likely pull Mexico’s economy into a contraction, Bloomberg Economics’ models show.

Bloomberg’s models give a 100% probability of the US falling into recession in the next 12 months, as it’s “tough to imagine” the Federal Reserve taming inflation without causing a contraction, Bloomberg US economists Eliza Winger and Anna Wong wrote MondayBloomberg Terminal. In those circumstances, Mexico’s economy “should steadily lose momentum before falling” in the second half of 2023, Bloomberg Latin America economist Felipe Hernandez wrote last weekBloomberg Terminal.