Jobs
Fed Has a Poor Record Forecasting Joblessness Around Downturns
- Current prediction is unemployment rate of 4.4% at end of 2023
- Fifty years of history shows Fed tends to be too optimistic
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The Federal Reserve’s forecasting track record over the past half-century suggests it may be overly optimistic when it predicts the US unemployment rate will rise in the coming year to 4.4% and hold there.