Polls Fail to Capture Bolsonaro Support Again in Brazil Vote

  • Like in 2018, polls struggled to gauge conservative support
  • Lula won over 48% of first-round votes; Bolsonaro about 43%

Supporters of Jair Bolsonaro at a rally in Salvador. 

Photographer: Maira Erlich/Bloomberg
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Four years later, Brazilian pollsters once again underestimated support for Jair Bolsonaro.

In Sunday’s election, the right-wing president received about 43% of the votes, propelling him to an Oct. 30 runoff against heavy favorite Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who took over 48% of votes.