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Lula’s Final Sprint Skews 70% Winning Chance Upward, Eurasia Group Says

  • Gap between candidates doesn’t lower odds of contested vote
  • Lula will try to repeat 2003’s recipe for market-friendly team
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva

Photographer: Andre Borges/Bloomberg

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s 70% odds of winning Brazil’s presidency this October are tilted to the upside, says political consultancy Eurasia Group. 

Incumbent Jair Bolsonaro is failing at curbing Lula’s “final sprint,” which is putting him closer to clinching an outright victory on Oct. 2, according to Christopher Garman, managing director at the firm.