It certainly isn’t likely. It definitely isn’t the base-case scenario. Oddsmakers would call it a long shot at best.
And yet, a growing number of Brazilian traders have started to position themselves for the possibility of turmoil following next month’s presidential vote. The concern, born partly out of the Jan. 6 riots in the US, is that President Jair Bolsonaro and his backers might reject results that show him losing by a small margin and try to use violence to keep him in power.