Central Banks

Fed’s Long-Sought Neutral Goal Proves Elusive and Moving Target

  • Economists’ survey shows broad disagreement on rate level
  • Some Fed officials now see short-term neutral rate as higher
The seal of the US Federal Reserve.Photographer: Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg
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A shift is underway at the Federal Reserve in how to describe neutral -- the interest-rate level that neither stimulates nor restrains growth -- as it debates how much higher to hike.