Lula’s Hope of First-Round Win Dims After Debate, DataFolha Says

  • Lula would take 45% of first-round vote; Bolsonaro 32%: Poll
  • Poll shows voter preferences firming up a month ahead of vote
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sept. 1.Photographer: Maira Erlich/Bloomberg
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A fiery debate and a blitz of campaign advertising further dashed Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s hopes of winning Brazil’s presidential election outright on Oct. 2, a DataFolha poll shows.

Maintaining a large lead, Lula, a two-term former president, would win 45% of the first-round vote, down from 47% in the last survey two weeks ago but the movement fell within the survey’s margin of error. Incumbent Jair Bolsonaro held steady at 32%.