Economics
Incorrect Economist Views Help Traders Bet on Data
- Surprise indexes show cycle is older than economists think
- Consensus view gives positioning insights on data-release days
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Economic surprises imply that economists in the aggregate are incorrectly gauging where we are in the cycle. This could give valuable insight on potential market positioning before data releases.
US economic surprises have been falling, but we can glean additional information about what the consensus is inferring by looking at a breakdown in the surprise indexes.