Europe Bond Rally at Risk as Complacency Sets in Over Inflation
- Shorted-dated debt is vulnerable with ECB hiking into slowdown
- Recession isn’t incompatible with high inflation, SocGen says
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Fund managers are warning the market is turning complacent over the outlook for inflation in Europe, where the prospect of recession has stoked the appeal of sheltering in bonds.
Government debt has staged a strong rally from lows set in June as the economic outlook darkens and fears over surging consumer prices take a back seat. But unlike in the US, where the latest print showed inflation slowed, a second reading of euro-area CPI this week will likely confirm inflation accelerated to a record 8.9%. Markets are pricing a peak of about 10% in September, according to Nordea Bank Abp.