Swaps Show 1-in-2 Odds of 75-Basis-Point Fed Hike in September
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Swap markets indicate that the likely outcome of the September Federal Reserve policy meeting is now a coin toss between a 50-basis-point hike and a bigger increase of 75 basis points.
The rate on swap contracts tied to the date of the September Fed meeting on Wednesday rose as high as 2.958%, some 62.8 basis points above the current effective fed funds rate of 2.33%. That implies a hike of at least 50 basis points is seen as definite and a more than one-in-two chance that it could be three-quarters of a percentage point.