Goldman Sees 25% Australia Recession Odds, 30-35% in New Zealand

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees a 25% chance of a recession in Australia over the next 12 months and 30-35% odds in New Zealand, while cautioning that a sharp US downturn would lift those probabilities to 50-60%.

Goldman economists reviewed 75 years of data to identify leading indicators of recessions in the antipodean economies and quantify the risks over the next year or so, William Nixon said in a research note Monday.