Odds of US Recession Within Next Year Near 50%, Survey Shows
- Probability of downturn up sharply from 30% odds in June
- Growth estimates were cut while inflation projections rose
Pedestrians carry shopping bags in San Francisco, California, US.
Photographer: David Paul Morris/BloombergThis article is for subscribers only.
Odds are now close to even that the US economy will slip into a recession within the next year as persistent and rapid inflation emboldens the Federal Reserve to pursue larger interest-rate hikes.
The probability of a downturn over the next 12 months stands at 47.5%, up sharply from 30% odds in June, according to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey of economists. In March, those odds were just 20%. The latest survey was conducted July 8-14, with 34 economists responding about the chances of recession.