JPMorgan Strategists Say Stocks Imply 85% Chance of US Recession
- Concerns of policy error, subsequent reversal have grown: JPM
- Strategists see stocks pricing 80% chance of Europe recession
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The S&P 500 now implies an 85% chance of a US recession amid fears of a policy error by the Federal Reserve, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists.
The warning from quant and derivatives strategists is based on the average 26% decline for the S&P 500 during the past 11 recessions and follows the US benchmark’s collapse into a bear market amid concerns about surging inflation and aggressive interest rate hikes.