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Half-Point European Central Bank Rate Hike by July Is Coin Toss

The European Central Bank headquarters beyond cargo trains and containers at a freight terminal in Frankfurt, Germany.

The European Central Bank headquarters beyond cargo trains and containers at a freight terminal in Frankfurt, Germany.

Photographer: Alex Kraus/Bloomberg

Money-market wagers have crossed half the way toward calling a historic half-point European Central Bank rate hike as soon as July. 

Traders have priced in 37.5 basis points of tightening to the central bank’s rate by next month’s meeting, implying a 50% chance of a half-a-percentage point increase, which would be the first since 2000.