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Here’s How the Fed Might Adopt Bostic’s Rate Pause in September

  • ‘Clear and convincing’ evidence of slowing inflation is a must
  • Slowdown in growth and jobs also a condition to halting rates
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Fed Doing 'Bare Minimum' With Three 50Bps Hikes: BofA's Harris
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Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic has cracked open the door to discussing a September pause in the central bank’s aggressive rate hikes -- a move that will only be on the table if inflation falls more than expected over the summer.

The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to raise interest rates by a half point in June and July, boosting its policy rate to a 1.75% to 2% target range. That would lift it to the lower edge of the Fed’s estimate of the neutral rate that neither stimulates nor restricts growth. By September, the Fed will also be shrinking its balance sheet by $95 billion a month, which is a second tool that officials are using to tighten policy.