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Morgan Stanley Says Russia’s Set for Venezuela-Style Default

  • Firm’s Simon Waever sees default possible as soon as April 15
  • Russian bonds have handed traders losses of over 81% this year
Updated on

The odds of Russia making its foreign debt payments are diminishing as bond prices fall, recession in the nation looms and various payment restrictions pile up after the invasion of Ukraine, according to Morgan Stanley & Co.

“We see a default as the most likely scenario,” Simon Waever, the firm’s global head of emerging-market sovereign credit strategy, wrote in a Monday note. “In case of default, it is unlikely to be like a normal one, with Venezuela instead perhaps the most relevant comparison.”