Economics

‘Crazy Mess’ of Jobs Data Has Economists Getting It Wrong Again

U.S. added 467,000 payrolls in January, above all estimates
Omicron, seasonal adjustment made this one hard to predict

U.S. Added 467,000 Jobs in January, Despite Omicron Surge

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By Olivia Rockeman

February 4, 2022 at 12:34 PM EST

This article is for subscribers only.

The economists got it wrong. Again.

After some estimates called for U.S. payrolls to decline by as much as 400,000, the labor market shockingly added that many jobs in January -- and then some. It’s not just last month: the median estimate has missed by an average of about 95,000 in the past year before revisions, versus less than 20,000 in the six months through March 2020.