Fed-Linked Swaps Show Rising Odds of Super-Sized March Hike
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Swaps linked to Federal Reserve meeting dates indicate that traders are now pricing in around 30 basis points of tightening at the next central bank gathering in March.
The central bank typically moves rates in increments of 25 basis points, so that kind of pricing suggests that at least a standard hike is certain and there is around a one-in-five possibility of a 50 basis point hike. Around 1.13 percentage points of tightening are priced in for the whole of 2022.