Citi Doesn’t See Real Supply-Chain Gains Until Late This Year or Maybe 2023

There’s a certain debate that’s going on still about whether “supply chain problems” actually exist or not. That sounds like a weird thing to say, since we talk about supply-chain issues all the time. But the question is whether there are fundamental snags and snarls in the movement of goods or whether we’re simply seeing an extremely high level of demand that’s putting strain on an otherwise well-functioning logistics system.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently attempted to come up with a pure measure of supply-chain disruptions that stripped out the effect of intense demand (particularly for durable goods) and argued that pressure is starting to ease, at least somewhat.