Is Covid Becoming Endemic? What Would That Mean?

Two years into the pandemic, weary governments are hoping the fast-spreading but less severe omicron variant marks a turning point, a shift toward a more predictable and manageable phase. Determined to escape the crisis and avoid more restrictions, officials in some countries suggest it’s approaching time to treat Covid as an endemic disease, like seasonal flu. World Health Organization experts say that’s premature. With omicron ripping through populations and vast parts of the planet still unvaccinated, the pandemic isn’t over. The bottom line: the path to reaching that endemic stage is full of uncertainties, posing tough questions for policymakers everywhere.

In an epidemic, a disease spreads rapidly and unexpectedly in a given location; it becomes a pandemic when it spreads globally, or over a very wide area. A disease that’s endemic is continuously present in a given population at a lower and more stable level, even if cases spike under certain conditions. Scientists expect that when enough people gain at least some protection from the coronavirus through vaccines, prior infections or both, it will blunt the spread of the virus and reduce hospitalizations and deaths, so that over time Covid will pose less of a threat. The virus won’t go away entirely, however, and endemic diseases can still take a serious toll. Tuberculosis and malaria, which are endemic in some parts of the world, claimed an estimated 1.5 million and 627,000 lives, respectively, in 2020. “Endemic in itself does not mean good. Endemic just means it’s here forever,” said Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO’s health emergencies program.