Prognosis
China Study Says Adopting U.S. Stance Would Trigger Covid Surge
- May see 630,000 cases a day with U.S. approach, study says
- Researchers very critical of “overconfident” Western approach
Morning commuters in the subway in Beijing earlier in November.
Photographer: Gilles Sabrie/BloombergThis article is for subscribers only.
China would face a “colossal outbreak” on a scale beyond anything any other country has yet seen, if it were to reopen in a similar manner to the U.S.
That’s a prediction based on statistical modeling by researchers at Beijing’s prestigious Peking University. A switch from China’s current Covid elimination strategy to an American-style approach with few restrictions would lead to as many as 637,155 infections a day, according to the study, which was published by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention on Nov. 24.