Scale of Oil’s Swing to Surplus Is Next Year’s Big Market Puzzle

Doubts linger over OPEC+ group’s ability to hit output goals 

Next year’s oil surplus will shrink if OPEC+ can’t meet output targets

Photographer: Bloomberg/Bloomberg
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The oil market is about to swing into a healthy supply surplus if the world's big international energy forecasters are to be believed.

The scale of that shift -- so critical to what the price of crude does next -- is heavily dependent on something that leading producer countries have collectively failed to do time and time again in recent months: pump as much as they're supposed to.