Why Turmoil in Belarus Is Spilling Over Its Borders

A throwback to a different era, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is a man with staying power who has become a problem for Europe on its eastern flank. The autocrat branded the continent’s “last dictator” has led the former Soviet state for almost three decades. His claim to a sixth term after a disputed election in August 2020 set off a burst of popular opposition that led to a crackdown on dissent. The coerced landing of a Ryanair jet and the spectacle of a Belarusian Olympic athlete seeking sanctuary in Poland focused attention on Belarus in 2021, as did the European Union’s accusation that the country was instigating a refugee crisis by helping migrants cross illegally into the EU. Meanwhile, Russia views Belarus as perhaps its closest ally, a buffer against encroachment by NATO and the EU.

Lukashenko, 67, has been in power since Belarus’s first presidential election as an independent republic in 1994. Much has changed in the world since then, a full decade before the EU expanded eastward to absorb many of the former communist states that had been under Soviet influence. Lukashenko, though, has kept his country of 9.3 million people — which lies at a geopolitical crossroads, sandwiched between the EU, Russia and Ukraine — aligned to the east, receiving financial and political support from Moscow. Belarus remains reliant on its potash exports, as well as imports of discounted Russian crude oil, which it refines and sells abroad at a profit. Discontent has simmered as Lukashenko failed to diversify the cash-strapped economy. But it was the 2020 election that got people onto the streets, defying riot police and calling for strikes.