Odd Lots

Transcript: Citi’s Matt King on Why Inflation Isn’t Transitory and the Fed May Induce a Recession

Central banks may be damned if they do raise rates and damned if they don’t.

Photographer: CARL DE SOUZA/AFP
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Inflation is elevated these days, and markets around the world are pricing in rate hikes. However, risk assets like stocks are doing just fine. There seems to be some presumption that any Fed rate-hiking cycle will be mild and that ultimately inflation will settle down without too much further pain. Matt King, the Global Markets Strategist at Citigroup, isn't convinced. On this episode, he explains why what we're seeing now is the impact of a big "whack" to the global economy, one which has no natural mechanism to rediscover equilibrium or balance. He believes that, for the Fed to actually tame this inflation, it may need to go further than just modest hikes, and move aggressively to tamp down demand, possibly creating a recession. Transcripts have been lightly edited.