Fed Rate Hike in June Has Become a Coin Flip as Yields Climb

  • Treasury two-year yield 0.40% for first time since March 2020
  • Strong retail sales data spurred latest phase of bond selloff
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U.S. interest-rate traders have upgraded to almost 50-50 the odds that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in June.

Interest-rate swaps referencing the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee price in around 12 basis points of an increase. A full hike is fully priced into the September meeting, with a second hike by February 2023.