Economics
U.S. Is in Recession If History of Consumer Sentiment Repeats
- Employment and wage growth would indicate no such slump
- Conference Board measure fell to lowest since November
This article is for subscribers only.
A decline in consumer expectations suggests the U.S. economy is in recession even though employment and wage growth indicate otherwise, according a new study co-authored by a former Bank of England policy maker.
In the research dated Thursday, David Blanchflower of Dartmouth College -- who set interest rates at the BOE during the 2008 financial crisis -- and Alex Bryson of University College London say that consumer expectations indexes from the Conference Board and University of Michigan tend to predict American downturns 18 months in advance.