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Treasury, U.K. Yield Curves Weighed Down by Rethink on Reflation

  • U.S. five- to 30-year spread narrows to least since August
  • Hawkish Fed leading to lower long-term inflation expectations
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Reflation Story in U.S. Remains Firmly in Play: Credit Suisse
Updated on

The pressure on long bond yields is going global, led by Treasuries and U.K. gilts, as investors reconsider reflation expectations and brace for an eventual pullback of central bank stimulus.

The Treasury five- to 30-year yield spread, which reflects the balance between the interest-rate outlook and inflation expectations, narrowed to the smallest gap since August. Its U.K. counterpart narrowed the least since December. That compression was driven by 30-year yields’ decline to the lowest levels since February, before trading little changed at 2.03% in the U.S. and 1.2% in Britain as of 6:30 a.m. in New York.