Q&A: Neil Dutta on What the Consensus Is Getting Wrong About the Fed Right Now

For much of the last year, Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro has been one of the most solid analysts on where the Federal Reserve, economy and market have been going. He’s been consistently bullish on the macro, bullish on stocks, and confident that the Fed would remain in an easy posture until it’s delivered on its new goals. Lately, some have argued that cracks are forming in the thesis. Inflation has run hotter than most economists anticipated. Job growth was also slower than expected last month. And some traders are now betting on some kind of hawkish turn from the Fed at this summer’s Jackson Hole meeting, perhaps in response to unexpected economic tightness. So I caught up with Neil over IB to get his full take right now on why he thinks the skeptics and critics are mostly wrong.

JOE WEISENTHAL: So to start, how would you see consensus about the Fed shifting?