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India’s Modeling Has Covid Outbreak Peaking in Coming Days

  • Mathematical model had wrongly suggested April peak earlier
  • Modi has so far resisted introducing a national lockdown
Funeral pyres burn at a sit of mass cremations in New Delhi, India, on April 21.
Funeral pyres burn at a sit of mass cremations in New Delhi, India, on April 21.Photographer: Anindito Mukherjee/Bloomberg
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A mathematical model prepared by advisers to Prime Minister Narendra Modi suggests India’s coronavirus outbreak could peak in the coming days, but the group’s projections have been changing and were wrong last month.

The team’s most recent forecast puts them more in line with at least some other scientists, who have suggested a mid-May peak for India. Medical experts and the political opposition have said a national lockdown is the immediately effective way to slow the spread, a move Modi has resisted.