Prognosis

South Africa Virus Resurgence May be Cut by Previous Infection Rate

Studies show 40% of people may have already been infected
Authorities on high alert for Indian variant of virus

A health worker arranges seating at a Covid-19 vaccination program registration tent in Brits, South Africa on April 30.Photographer: Waldo Swiegers/Bloomberg

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By Antony Sguazzin and S'thembile Cele

May 3, 2021 at 5:08 PM UTC

Updated on

May 4, 2021 at 9:54 AM UTC

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South Africa will likely experience a weaker “third wave” of coronavirus infections because studies in January and February show 30% to 40% of the population has already contracted the disease, the South African Covid-19 Modelling Consortium said.

Depending on the strength of the government response to a rise in cases, the number of fatalities from a third wave could range between 7,800 and 70,200, said the consortium, which is linked to the National Institute of Communicable Diseases.