Turkish Lira’s Wild Ride Has Banks Axing Forecasts for Guesswork
- Strategists in the dark after Erdogan fired central bank head
- Lira leads EM drop as SocGen, Commerzbank see it testing lows
Customers wait in line at a currency exchange outlet in Istanbul on March 22.
Photographer: Nicole Tung/BloombergThis article is for subscribers only.
Making predictions in emerging markets has always been a tough job. For Turkey, it’s become near impossible.
Bank strategists tore up their bullish lira forecasts this week after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan fired the head of the central bank, and now are largely in the dark on where the currency goes next. Some are using past crises as a guide, while others are watching for evidence that the central bank is propping up the currency and studying the swaps market.