Traders See Earlier Fed Hikes, Even as Goldman Cautions on Pace
- Market pricing shows first U.S. rate increase in mid-2023
- Swaps had indicated liftoff would take until early 2024
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Spurred by a wave of economic optimism, traders are warming to the idea that Federal Reserve rate increases could come sooner than was expected even just a few weeks ago.
Interest-rate swap markets are pricing the first 25 basis point of Fed hikes around mid-2023, versus the early-2024 timeframe priced in at the beginning of this month. The shift has coincided with improved prospects for U.S. stimulus spending as well as vaccine roll-outs, leading to enthusiasm about the global economy’s prospects. Market-based measures of inflation have jumped, reflecting those rosier feelings, and bonds have sold off around the world.