Lockdown 3.0 Could See U.K. GDP Contract 4.5% in the First Quarter

The double dip U.K. recession Bloomberg Economics penciled in before Christmas is almost certain to be deeper than envisaged after England entered another lockdown to contain the spread of a more infectious variant of Covid-19. Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Monday set out the toughest restrictions since March, including school closures. Even if everything goes right and the roll-out of vaccines allows restrictions to be lifted by mid-February, GDP could contract by 4.5% in the first quarter, following a 1% fall in the final three months of 2020.