Biden Will Have to Heal Economy With Little Congressional Help
The GOP shows no willingness to provide the kind of fiscal relief Democrats say is needed.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Nov. 9.
Photographer: Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg
There’s conflicting evidence about the buoyancy of the U.S. economy. On one hand, cases of Covid-19 are spiking as winter approaches, and with a Democratic president poised to take office, Republicans are showing no willingness to spend the kind of money on a relief package that Democrats say is necessary. On the other, the news isn’t all bad—employment is recovering from pandemic-induced lows and the manufacturing and housing sectors are thriving.
Since all that makes it difficult to know what kind of economy President-elect Joe Biden will inherit on Jan. 20, the best you can do is consider scenarios. The median forecast of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News is for the economy to grow at an annual rate of 3.7% in the first quarter. But the median of the five most recently updated forecasts is only 2.7%. And Bloomberg’s own economists see an air pocket ahead, with the economy shrinking at an annual rate of 0.5% in the first quarter before accelerating for the rest of the year.