Stock-Market Election Indicator Settles in Trump’s Favor
- S&P 500’s performance in past three months turned positive
- A rising equity market has heralded incumbent win 86% of time
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A stock-market election indicator that is often ridiculed for its randomness but whose record of prescience is hard to ignore, at least completely, settled in Donald Trump’s favor on Tuesday.
The S&P 500’s rally into Election Day pushed its performance over the past three months into positive territory -- a comeback for the indicator which turned negative last week. In some circles, the rebound may be seen as boding well for President Trump’s bid for re-election given that a rising market has tended to precede a victory for the sitting party 86% of the time since 1928.