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Is the ‘California Exodus’ Turning Arizona Blue?

As migration patterns reshape the U.S. political map, coronavirus-related moves from blue counties to red ones could be a factor in future elections.

Movers at work in Redwood City, California. 

Movers at work in Redwood City, California. 

Photographer: Aric Crabb/MediaNews Group/The Mercury News via Getty Images

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All these pandemic-era moves could swing a future election.

Overall, household moves among Americans are down this year — and predictions about a permanent “urban exodus” appear to be overstated. But based on voter registration data, U.S. Census data, and an analysis of Redfin.com searches, migration out of New York and California in the four years since the 2016 election has already reshaped the 2020 political map. Population gains in Arizona and Nevada have come with a larger electorate of Democrats. And if the trends hold, the states may only get bluer.