Ending Lockdown as Virus Rages Won’t Aid Long-Run GDP, IMF Says
- Fund warns governments against lifting lockdowns prematurely
- Mobility and job data show voluntary social distancing impact
Travelers exit the Brighton Beach subway station in Brooklyn’s Brighton Beach neighborhood, on Oct. 5.
Photographer: Mark Kauzlarich/BloombergLifting lockdowns is unlikely to lead to a decisive and sustained economic boost as long as Covid-19 infections remain elevated, because people will probably keep avoiding social interactions out of fear of contracting the virus, the International Monetary Fund said.
New IMF research shows that while government lockdowns contributed significantly to the global recession, the slowdown was also driven in large part by people continuing to exercise voluntary social distancing, the fund said in a blog post Thursday accompanying a chapter from its updated World Economic Outlook. The fund will publish new forecasts on Oct. 13 during its annual meeting with the World Bank.