Big Risk for Bonds Is That U.S. Election Actually Goes Smoothly
- Janus’s Maroutsos builds ‘war chest of cash’ just in case
- Ten-year rate could rise 30-40bps on Democratic sweep: Goldman
Voters cast ballots at a polling station during a power outage in Manhattan, Kansas, on Aug. 4.
Photographer: Doug Barrett/BloombergThis article is for subscribers only.
Amid all of the investor focus on a potential messy political battle over the results of the U.S. presidential election, there is one scenario that could shake up the bond market the most: A clear and undisputed winner.
This is likely one of the most-underappreciated risks of the Nov. 3 vote, with the potential to push the 10-year Treasury yield back to 1% in the weeks that follow, a level it hasn’t touched since the first quarter. While it may not be the base case for many prominent investors, some are positioning for it just in case.