Treasuries Face High Bar for Yield Liftoff in Calmest-Ever Trade
- Median Q4 10-year Treasury forecast is 0.75%, highest is 1.05%
- Presidential debate could move markets if it sways polling
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Bond strategists see Treasury yields ending the year marginally higher, but even a modest uptick faces stiff headwinds in a market that’s almost ground to a halt.
The median forecast is for the 10-year yield to climb 10 basis points from its current 0.65% level, with the highest projections barely cracking 1%. That view hinges on a continued recovery in growth, thanks in large part to the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented monetary support. Some may also be banking on the U.S. election to clear the way for more fiscal stimulus.