Russia Worries If Awkward Ally’s Time Is Up as Protests Grow

  • Some in Kremlin said to fear Lukashenko could lose control
  • Belarus is key ally for Russia, buffer against NATO in West

Demonstrators in Independence Square during a protest rally in Minsk on Aug. 14.

Photographer: Sergei Gapon/AFP via Getty Images

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Russia’s options to preserve influence in its closest ally are narrowing as Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s grip on power slips amid swelling popular protests against his 26-year rule.

Some in the Kremlin fear Lukashenko could be forced from office, according to three people familiar with the situation, leaving Russia scrambling to maintain its special relationship with a vital buffer against the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Others see his brutal crackdown on opponents as counterproductive but ultimately likely to keep him in power at least for a while, said another person close to the Kremlin.