Economists Warn That a Hotter World Will Be Poorer and More Unequal
What happens when economic models absorb climate projections? Global GDP drops by 20% over the next 80 years.
Commuters exit the Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Terminus railway station in Mumbai on July 6.
Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/BloombergHotter temperatures by 2100 could slash global GDP by more than 20%, according to new research, and the way the economic impact will be distributed threatens to turn climate change into an enormous driver of worldwide inequality.
A new analysis of the relationship between heat and economic performance released this week by Oxford Economics, a global forecasting firm, identified a divide between nations on either side of 15° Celsius (59° Fahrenheit), the “global sweet spot” for economic activity. A country whose average annual temperatures today are cooler than 15° C, including those in North America and Europe, stand to benefit slightly in the short term from rising temperatures. Tropical and subtropical countries whose average temperatures are already warmer than 15° C today, including the entire global South, face catastrophic economic degradation.