Risky Climate
The Virus Is Teaching Everyone What Runaway Growth Really Means
To make sense of the spread of Covid-19, economics—particularly black swan events and compound growth—can provide guidance.
California Street, usually filled with cable cars, is seen empty in San Francisco on March 18.
Photographer: Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty ImagesThis article is for subscribers only.
Compound growth is relentless. Investors know that all too well: Start saving early, and even low annual growth rates will eventually yield big results.
Black swan events, too, are relentless. The existence of low-probability, high-impact events, in fact, is a powerful explanation for the long-standing “equity premium puzzle,” why equities on average return so much more than bonds and make compound growth all the more powerful.