Prognosis
Prolonged Social Distancing Would Curb Virus, but at a High Cost
- Researchers estimate draconian steps needed to stop pandemic
- Months of severe controls would be challenging to maintain
A pedestrian crosses California Street in San Francisco, California, on March. 16.
Photographer: David Paul Morris/BloombergThis article is for subscribers only.
Americans have been told to hunker down at home for several weeks in order to slow transmission of the novel coronavirus, but a truly effective shutdown would likely have to be significantly longer and more severe.
The best way to prevent the pandemic from overwhelming hospitals is social distancing that could drag on for a year or more, until doctors find a way to control it, researchers at Imperial College London said in a report published Monday. They estimated 81% of people in Great Britain and the U.S. would get the virus if no steps were taken to slow its spread. In the U.S., 2.2 million would die, with 510,000 deaths in Great Britain.