Coronavirus Will Hit Oil Hard. That’s Where the Consensus Ends

Everyone agrees that the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) that has shut down large parts of China’s industry and brought travel to a virtual halt in parts of the country will hit the world’s demand for oil hard. But the three big forecasting agencies are far apart on how severe that impact will be and what it means for 2020 oil balances.

The International Energy Agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and OPEC — the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries — have all slashed their forecasts for global oil demand in the first two quarters of 2020 in their monthly reports published this week. The severity of the reductions they made may reflect the points of view of the three agencies in the absence of hard evidence of an actual impact on demand.