Economics

China’s Hurting Banks Brace for Worst-Case Economic Scenario

  • Virus outbreak may add $800 billion of new bad loans, S&P says
  • China bank stress may extend to big lenders as economy falters
Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg
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Just as it looked like Beijing was starting to get a handle on its regional banking crisis, a much more severe threat is engulfing the world’s largest banking system as a deadly new virus hits the country’s economy.

The impact of the spreading coronavirus risks bringing to life the worst-case economic scenarios contained in China’s annual banking stress tests. Last year’s exercise envisaged annual economic growth slowing to as low as 4.15% -- a scenario which showed that the bad loan ratio at the nation’s 30 biggest banks would rise five-fold. Analysts now say that the outbreak could send first-quarter growth to as little as 3.8%.