Brutal Month Has China Analysts Rethinking Everything Yet Again
- Volatility spikes as onshore trading resumed after holiday
- Analysts have revised estimates on stocks, yuan’s level
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Optimism about the initial trade deal lasted all of a month on the mainland, with the deadly coronavirus causing China watchers to junk recently revised predictions.
Investment banks have trimmed stock-index targets while sovereign-bond analysts -- who had expected the benchmark 10-year yield to rise in early 2020 -- are now bracing for a possible decline to levels not seen since 2002. Some yuan experts say more weakness can be expected this quarter before a rebound, and forecasts for first-quarter economic growth in China have been slashed.