Brussels Edition: Path Dependency to Disaster

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg’s daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union. Sign up here to get it in your inbox every weekday morning.

The EU is terrified of another migrant wave, and while that’s been driving its policy on Turkey and Libya, the bloc may need to expand its list of concerns. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan just announced he will issue hydrocarbon licenses in the Eastern Mediterranean and start exploration work, potentially in waters that Greece claims as its own under UN law. For Athens, that would cross the line, and another EU Summit statement or a diplomatic protest may not cut it. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis could be left with little choice than to intercept Turkish drillships, or risk political suicide. And then what? Those who recall January 1996 know that bad things don’t always happen by design. It only takes a miscalculation or an overplayed hand for path dependency to lead to disaster.