What the Latest Iran Protests Mean for the Regime’s Control

U.S. President Donald Trump has said that his campaign of “maximum pressure” on Iran isn’t aimed at precipitating regime change there. That hasn’t stopped him and his aides from telegraphing their hopes for it. So it was when protests erupted in Iran over news that government forces had mistakenly shot down a passenger jet, killing the 176 people on board. The demonstrations tapped into a vein of popular frustration with Iran’s rulers that fed earlier protests in November. Taken together, the unrest has been the most widespread and violent since the Islamic revolution that brought a cleric-led government to power in Iran in 1979. That doesn’t mean the establishment is about to be swept aside. A robust security apparatus retains a strong grip on the country and protects the current system. But demands for change are growing louder.

Iranians were shocked by the government’s delayed admission that its premier military force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, had shot down a Ukrainian airliner shortly after it took off from Tehran Jan. 8. The Revolutionary Guard, which led a strike on U.S. bases in Iraq hours earlier to avenge the U.S. killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, said it had mistaken the aircraft for a cruise missile. The public’s anger was fed by the incompetence of the incident -- from a security establishment that constantly boasts of its prowess -- and by what looked like a coordinated effort to hide the state’s culpability for days. A large number of those on board the flight were university graduates, many pursuing further study abroad. Iran’s massive student population spearheaded demonstrations that featured chants against the regime, specifically the Revolutionary Guard.