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Recession Gets Priced Out in a Stock Rally for the Record Books

  • Very big years in markets rarely come right before recessions
  • Research finds stock returns lead S&P earnings by a quarter
relates to Recession Gets Priced Out in a Stock Rally for the Record Books
Photographer: Bloomberg Daybreak

Should American investors, $6 trillion richer after the stock market’s best year in six, take shelter now, convinced a reckoning is at hand and the good times won’t last? As far as earnings, the economy and equities themselves are concerned, the answer is no.

Or at least, not necessarily. Past performance isn’t always indicative of future results. But if you’re looking at the size of this year’s gains and deciding they somehow doom 2020 to being a disaster, history suggests a more nuanced approach is called for.