Economics
Two Emerging Markets Are Ready for the Next Global Recession
- Russia, South Korea have room to adjust, Saxo Bank says
- Worldwide downturn isn’t base case, but risks are rising
Port of Murmansk, in Murmansk, Russia.
Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/BloombergThis article is for subscribers only.
If the global trade spat ends up tipping the world into recession, Russia and South Korea could be the best places to hide in emerging markets, according to Saxo Bank.
Both countries have high real interest rates and are running budget surpluses, giving policy makers ample room to adjust in a downturn, said Christopher Dembik, the bank’s Paris-based global head of macroeconomic research. Both the ruble and won could outperform, he said.